Labour need to get Barack in the game!

So we have a coalition Government, Lib Dem's have cabinet seats. Who would have thought they would be saying those words five months ago. But it is five years until the next election and the excitment in Politics is quickly dying down again. We enjoyed the TV debates, well we at least tuned in to them, we enjoyed the excitement of a coalition being born (especially a certain condeming headling). But that excitement is flowing out of us quicker than a poorly cooked friday night curry. However, is there hope at the end of the grey tunnel that is political media? Perhaps, the Labour leadership election?

Now I am in know way going to suggest that the Miliband's are anywhere near as exciting as Barack Obama, and Ed Balls certainly isn't - frankly I know nothing of John McDonnell but I am quite sure he isn't either - but I might go as far as to suggest they could whip us up into a political frenzy as Obama did. This leadership debate has some serious potential:

1) Brother versus brother as both Miliband's put themselves up for leadership.

2) A man clutching at straws as 'Brownite' Ed Balls tries to fight his way to leadership

3) The man that came from know where as backbencher John McDonnell looks to be the dark horse of the campaign

4) A demographic winner as the first black women MP Diane Abbott enters the fray

5) And Andy Burnham

They are five plots that could explode us into excitement, they could grab our attention and rejuvenate the Labour Party. They probably won't as I am sure none of them will live up to their promise, but opportunity is there. The one we all surely look to when we want to replicate the Obama factor is McDonnell. Before the Primaries in America Obama was little known, much the same for McDonnell. Although he is a very popular backbencher in the party, outside the House of Commons he is not exactly challenging David Beckham for front page of magazines. If he can simulate Obama's rise in popularity it could be a great plot to watch, as you may know from previous blogs I am a big fan of Obama's rhetoric and feel this is the only way such a rise in popularity can be achieved; McDonnell has strong left wing convictions and at a time like this, idealistic rhetoric to that aim could be popular in the same way.

The Miliband's have potential though. David Miliband has been long waiting for the opportunity to go for leadership in clean fight, I say clean as many waanted him to usurp Gordon's thrown whilst Brown was still in power. Has he missed his chance though, he is a popular figure and having been foriegn secretary is a man that can deal with high profile positions. But his own brother is not willing to stand behind him. Ed Miliband has seen opportunity and gone for it. He is also a popular figure within the Labour Party and became highly prominent during the election. He could ride that popularity to the top. Sadly they seem hell bent on not bad mouthing each other which makes it a hell of a lot less fun for all of us; though I am sure that won't last, it never does.

Mr Balls. Balls by name, Balls-up by nature. One of Gordon Browns most loyal followers, which will surely work against him. Gordon Brown has an unpopular reign in Government and Ed Balls was always alongside him. He lacks the vigour of the Miliband's and the clean slate of McDonnell. He has his high profile in Politics going for him, but I am not sure anyone thought he made a good education secretary - and does that count as high profile? In a cabinet where he had the ear of the Prime Minister he was still in a less high profile position than David Miliband (who at the time was the PM's biggest threat). Clearly, he is no challenge and I cannot see him winning the race.

Diane Abbott has a strong chance of pulling an Obama on us. She has been an MP for a long time but never found political stardom; in her campaign she may reason that upon certain demographics that she is in. She was the UK's first ever black women MP and in that sense she ticks some boxes. I am not suggesting that either women or black people would vote just because of that, but the excitement around Obama grew quite significantly because he was the first legitimate black Presidential candidate. This could be the UK's first legitimate black candidate, this could be Labour's first legitimate female candidate. She certainly has the ability to get a buzz around her, she just needs to talk the talk to prove she is legitimate. If she wins it could be a fantastic glass ceiling shattering moment - people cried out for a 'new politics' in the election, they cried out for a breakdown of the political elite - a black women PM could signify just that.

And finally Andy Burnham. A man who rose into the limelight during a stint as Health Secretary. A rather successful stint, though not brilliant...but in no way terrible. He is actually a very popular MP, he walks away from Labours reign with an untarnished record. He is likeable, with northern roots (which is always a winner in the Labour Party, he is strong in his ideals and can work the media. He is a real competitor and one David Miliband might have hoped to have on side. He was late to throw his hat in the race, but it could lead to a successful campaign.

These Lib Dems are smarter than we thought...

A five year fixed term...that was a smart move by the ol' Liberal Democrats. As I stupidly predicted in my last blog, I was expecting them to be shafted out of Government within a couple of years. They may now even be able to take some of the credit for the recovery and jump into second party position. Ol' Vince Cable may become the hero of the economy! In five years times the famous names of politics we see everyday will be those of Liberal Democrats and not those of Labour. Should Labour be worried...

1) No, they are about to go through a fantastic leadership battle which will pit the big names in the party against each other. David Miliband versus Ed Milibad, brother versus brother...that is going to be a good show. They may still the limelight from the coalition if they do it correctly and they may even win back some voters along the way.

2) yes, Labour are in the position where a strong leadership battle is possible because they have 'political heavyweights'. Political heavyweights come from having cabinet posts and getting tv time. In five years time Lib Dems will have political heavyweights, and not just from going to bed with Cheeky Girls (though a heavyweight he proved not to be). This will mean that when the next election comes around the Lib Dem campaign trail will not rely so heavily on leadership, they will be able to throw big names into the debates with recent cabinet experience...they may be able to knock Labour down a peg or to.

A New Prime Minister...but how long will he have the job?

So Brown has gone, described by Peter Mandelson as “not faultless, but fearless”. I think we all saw this resignation coming since he announced the election. He was never going to win and he seemingly couldn’t stay on if he lost. Following the Hung Parliament we have been left on tender hooks waiting for a leader to emerge. As was the case throughout the entire campaign, no leader has. Cameron is now certainly going to be Prime Minister; we could have made this assumption since he first took power of the Tories in 2005. The fact that he failed to take power via an overall majority just goes to show the weakness in his leadership skills. He failed to lead the people to the polls, let’s hope he will be able to lead them after the polls. He is seemingly going to become Prime Minister via a coalition Government (although at time of writing this is not certain). He has again failed to assert himself as a strong leader and gain Parliament’s support to start a minority Government – on the assumption he won’t be. I can hardly imagine Thatcher, Churchill or Blair ever being a part of a coalition, they would have beat down the opposition throughout these negotiations. They would have made deals, they would have span stories and would have done everything it takes to rise above the rest and assert themselves as the only leader for this country.

Cameron has not done this. In fact, he has had only a small part to play in the negotiations; neither has Clegg. I know if it was me, and I think this probably goes for the three people I named above, I would not be kept out of that room. Now is his someone’s time to stand up and take control. Brown has stepped aside with a goodbye; the next worry for Cameron will have to be who will fill that void. If it is David Miliband, who has seemingly, been Leader in waiting throughout Browns years, than Cameron may have to worry what will happen in the next election. Milliband is a popular, ideological and charismatic MP who, if he takes control, could quite easily bring a flood of support back to Labour. (Although it has to be said Harriet Harman is obviously acting leader and may look to keep the role and a few others will be looking to seize power of the Party). The other problem on Cameron’s mind will have to be Clegg. A coalition Government could mean the announcement of Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister. This is a man who underwent a huge surge in popularity during the campaign; this role could give him political legitimacy. It could paint him as the natural successor to Cameron. If Cameron does become Prime Minister via a coalition Government than he will surely try to call an election as quickly as possible in order to earn a full majority. However, today’s events could lead to an even harder election for Cameron next time around.

As suggested above, Cameron will most likely be looking to call another election as soon as he thinks he can win a full majority. I am going to make a personal prediction on this, it may turn out to be wrong, but it makes sense to the pragmatic nature of Mr. Cameron. I believe that the large spending cuts in which we were promised by Cameron throughout campaign will not happen to the extent we were told. Tax rises will not happen at all. The economy is seemingly on the way up; Cameron will ride this wave to popularity, he will not make big changes until he can claim he saved this country from recession. As soon as he starts claiming this, and his popularity in turn goes through the roof, he will call the next election and take a full majority. It is then that we will see the major spending cuts; it is then that we will see the major tax rises; and he will do it with five years left to earn back our support – A New Prime Minister, A New Master of Spin.